Fuzzy Signals

The Blog's Conceit

How do we extract the signal from the noise? As human beings we do this all the time, consciously and unconsciously. This is how we adapt to changing circumstances. This is how we have survived this long as a species. Even so, learning to understand the environment in which we live, with perspective and in context, can be tricky. We all feel a little like fish these days, especially as the volume and density of information increases, and as the world becomes more connected and complex.

We still don't understand fully how we make sense of the world around us, but as scientists and practitioners are finding out, we filter this informational fog through the prism of our Worldview - that is, the mental soup that comprises of our beliefs, values, and assumptions about the world. Some of these beliefs are rational and conscious, but most of them are decidedly not, coming instead from deeper instinctual wells and emotions predating much of more recent cognitive appartus. So while this guiding system is very useful, our Worldview also makes us susceptible to having blind spots, which in turn prevent us from "seeing" and interpreting key signals, especially signals that are unfamiliar or don't fit our past experience, very often until its too late. This is why we are often surprised by certain developments when they happen, like the fall of the Soviet Union or September 11th, despite the fact that there were many indicators telling us that such events were inevitable, more or less. Much of human history is replete with these inevitable surprises. And today's geopolitical story, in particular Bush II Administration's reaction to September 11th and the debate around global climate change, seems to be falling in line with this unfortunate historical pattern. So misreading or missing key signals of change can have huge consequences and implications at both micro and macro levels.

What does this have to do with blogging? And what is blogging? While blogging may contribute to the informational noise, it also a potential mechanism for sensing and sense making . At the individual level, good blog writers - the ones that survive the competition for mindshare and attention - are robust informational filters and sensors themselves; they point to interesting articles, links, developments, images and video clips, often contextualizing or offering analysis of what these data points mean to them. Individual bloggers also represent unheard voices or perspectives often not seen in conventional media. You may not agree with their views or even understand them, and their facts and arguments may be plain wrong. More to the point, these different views help us ask better questions, challenge some of core assumptions, and thus assist in a deeper form of learning. As good signal-spotters and future-readers know, important indicators and insight is found by looking carefully and judiciously at the fringes and fault-lines of society and culture - the heretics, the disenfranchised, the amateurs, the court jesters and jokers, cutting edge artists and poets. So blogs can give us unprecedented access to these voices, which will only increase as the breadth and depth of web penetration increases in other parts of the world.

On an aggregate level, there is also something interesting happening as well. Through sites like http://www.blogdex.net which showcase the "most contagious information currently in the weblog community", we can see interesting and unexpected patterns, themes, and memes across a wide variety of individual blogs, and thus a diverse selection of social networks, perspectives and geographies. So that's very cool stuff for pattern recognizers like me, people who have earned a living out of helping people anticipate and shape the future. It may be too early too say whether blogging, as a web-based innovation, is a truly disruptive technology challenging mainstream publishing and media business models and practices. But typically, when any invention is able to tap into a fundamental human desire that's cheaper, faster, and better than other channels - particularly when that need is human expression and communication - something significant usually happens. So at the very least, it's worth hanging around this space for a while to see what happens.

So, in the spirit of "serious play", I hope to use this blog for exploring different signals of change and ideas for the future - everything from the profound to the profane, the significant to the silly, without being too judgmental of what's what. My hope is to engage with other like-minded souls in this game as well. The benefits in doing this activity collectively are clear; as Kevin Kelly put it, "no one is as smart as everyone." But then again, I'm reminded of what Anatole France also said: "If fifty million people say a foolish thing, it is still a foolish thing." I'm trusting that the pendulum won't swing too far one way or the other - that we'll find more wisdom and entertainment than stupidity and ignorance - but there are no guarantees, of course, when our signals are fuzzy.

Happy signal-spotting.

- nab

Posted by nicole at October 5, 2003 09:58 PM